Giuliani, Cuomo Virtually Tied in 2010 NY Governor Race

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is still the most formidable candidate in next year’s gubernatorial race in New York, but he barely squeaks by if Rudy Giuliani is his Republican opponent. Two months ago, Cuomo had a 19-point lead on the former New York City mayor.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Empire State finds Cuomo beating the only announced Republican candidate for governor, former Congressman Rick Lazio, by nearly two-to-one – 57% to 29%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

But against Giuliani, Cuomo wins by just three points – 49% to 46%. Only two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are not sure whom they’ll support. Giuliani, best known for his actions in the aftermath of the September11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, is rumored to be interested in the race but has not announced.

Two months ago, Cuomo beat Lazio even more handily (65% to 26%) and led Giuliani 58% to 37%. In July, however, Cuomo was ahead of Giuliani by only seven points.

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Cuomo has yet to announce his widely-expected intra-party challenge of the state’s highly unpopular Democratic governor, David Paterson, who continues to lose to both Republicans. Paterson has his best shot against Lazio, losing by just a 41% to 37% margin. But 13% favor some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are not sure.

It’s another two-to-one race when Paterson faces Giuliani. The unpopular incumbent loses to the ex-mayor 57% to 30%. Ten percent (10%) opt for some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are not sure.

In September, Paterson was tied with Lazio at 38% each and lost to Giuliani by just 11 points – 50% to 39%.

Forty-three percent (43%) of New York voters say Paterson should drop out of next year’s governor’s race, but 36% disagree and 21% aren’t sure. Interestingly, a plurality (43%) of Democrats now do not believe Paterson should quit the race. Two months ago, 50% thought he should drop out.

Nineteen percent (15%) of the state’s Democrats say pressure from the Obama White House on Paterson not to run makes them more likely to vote for him, but 15% says it makes them less likely to do so. Sixty-five percent (65%) says it has no impact on their vote. These numbers mark little change from September.

Cuomo won by more than two-to-one among Democratic voters in July in a 2010 primary match-up with Paterson.

Just 10% of all New York voters have a favorable opinion of Paterson, who became governor in March 2008 when Eliot Spitzer resigned because of a sex scandal, while 30% view him very unfavorably. These numbers are virtually unchanged from September.

Cuomo is viewed very favorably by 23%, down 13 points from the previous survey, and very unfavorably by 15%.

Eight percent (8%) have a very favorable view of Lazio, who ran unsuccessfully against Hillary Clinton for the U.S. Senate in 2000, but twice as many (16%) have a very unfavorable regard for him. These numbers, too, are little changed.

For Giuliani, very favorables total 28% and very unfavorables 24%, down seven points from September.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on the 2010 Senate race in New York tomorrow.

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